Correlation of Society Stringency/Openness Measures with Timely Trend of COVID-19 Cases - Case Study – Albania Versus Italy

Abstract

Following the WHO declaration for COVID-19 as a pandemic, this disease has caused an international crisis with a severe impact on economic and health care systems. After the first cases reported in China, the disease has progressively widespread worldwide where all affected countries has adapted specific safety protocols and tried to find new therapies in order to face this new disease. The final objective is to evaluate the overall impact of stringency measures taken from Albanian and Italian governmental authorities in relation to daily cases of COVID-19 in each country. This is a descriptive paper where the data collected in Albania and Italy according to authority-based stringency measures were compared with their output; temporary trend of daily cases. Officially Albania reported the first COVID-19 case in 8th of March in an Albanian citizen just arrived from Italy, meanwhile in Italy the first cases dated January 31st were a Chinese couple in Rome who had travel from Wuhan City. Both governments took action by applying different closer measures; thereby Blavatnik School of Government has introduced the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) in order to quantifying numerically these actions. According to OxCGRT, Albania and Italy present similar level of stringency indicator, but epidemiological curve of daily cases is totally different in shape. Italian curve corresponds to a typical outbreak, while Albania curve seem like any endemic disease in the population. In front of this pandemic, the Albanian curve might be cut off as a result a small number of tests carried out by Albania authorities, 6906 tests/million population, which is far lower than tests performed by Italian authorities, which is 11 times fold (79908 test/million population). Toward end of May the number of COVID-19 were dropped so both governments planned to relief closure measures by opening most of public and economic activities. In front of the fear that COVID-19 could rise up again, as a result of virus transmission amongst people that was observed in Albania, while in Italy continued with the low and decreasing trend of disease cases. Data and their comparison though different indicators or index, shows that stringency measures could contribute on a temporary diminution of new cases of COVD-19, but if not are accompanied with individual protection measures, and/or special vulnerable groups it might be a missing opportunity because the general population might lose what was achieved during national quarantine. On the other hand, taking in consideration low public spending per capita in Albania (307 USD, 2014), moving from “hummer” toward “dance” phase, managing and supporting health system is critical. Public health services should be mainly the entitled authorities to monitor data and come up with specific and efficient measures in order to prevent an increase of cases on the overall population.Keywords: Albania, Italy, stringency index, epidemic, COVID-19; Pandemic;